Nearly one in two of your neighbors is mentally packing boxes. The other one is just waiting for the kids to finish school.
This summer, a headline made the rounds again: nearly half of New Jersey residents want to leave. If you live here, your reaction was probably "only half?"
The number comes from a Monmouth University Poll that the New Jersey Business and Industry Association has been waving around ever since: 48% of New Jerseyans want to move out of state at some point. (We dug into that poll when it first dropped, and spoiler: nothing has gotten cheaper since.) And here's the part nobody in Trenton wants to talk about. It isn't the weather, the traffic, or the guy who cut you off on Route 17. It's the money. It's always the money.
The Numbers Don't Lie (Unlike Your Tax Assessment)
Among the residents who want out, 43% say the cost of living is the most important reason. Another 52% say it's one of the top reasons. Only 5% say it doesn't factor in at all, and we'd love to meet those people, because they're either lottery winners or they haven't opened a PSE&G bill since 2019.
When asked to name the biggest problem facing the state, property taxes topped the list at 39%. About half of everyone polled mentioned some form of taxes. Shocking. Truly.
This isn't idle grumbling, either. 28% said they're very likely to leave, and another 27% said somewhat likely. That's more than half the state with one foot already on the Turnpike southbound.
And look at who's itching to go:
Ages 18 to 34: 57% want out
Ages 35 to 54: 54% want out
Over 55: 37% want out
Earning over $100,000: 55% want out
Read that last line again. The people New Jersey depends on most to pay for everything are the most eager to stop paying for everything. That's not a trend. That's a bucket with a hole in the bottom.
One more stat worth chewing on: 63% of likely leavers say they'll go after retirement. Translation: they're working here, paying here, and planning their exit for the day the paycheck stops and the tax bill doesn't. Considering where New Jersey ranks as a place to retire, can you blame them?
It's Not Just Talk. The Moving Trucks Are Real.
If you think this is just people venting at the diner, check the moving trucks. United Van Lines' latest National Movers Study ranked New Jersey #1 for outbound moves for the eighth year in a row, with about 62% of its moves heading out of state. Eight years. We've held that title longer than most people hold a gym membership.
The Census backs it up, and the state has been bleeding residents for years. In 2024 alone, New Jersey lost a net 63,900 residents to other states, ranking 47th in the country for domestic migration. Sunlight Policy NJ puts the net loss to other states since 2020 at more than 192,000 people. That's more people than live in all of Paterson, packing up and handing back the keys.
So why does the state's population still look fine on paper? International immigration is filling the gap. Which is great, until you realize the people leaving tend to be taking their paychecks, their home equity, and their tax payments with them.
Stay NJ: The Program That Was Supposed to Keep You Here
Here's where it gets good. Remember Stay NJ, the program that was going to cut senior property taxes in half and convince everyone to stick around?
That same Monmouth poll asked about it. 53% said Stay NJ would make them more likely to stay. Even among people very likely to leave who were 55 and older, 61% said it might change their minds. Finally, a reason to unpack!
Then Trenton got its hands on it. We told you back in March that the Governor wanted to cut the benefit. Here's how it actually shook out.
When Stay NJ launched, it offered up to $6,500 a year to seniors earning up to $500,000. The FY2027 budget signed this summer chopped the income limit to $200,000 and created a sliding scale:
Under $100,000: up to $6,500
$100,000 to $150,000: up to $5,000
$150,000 to $200,000: up to $4,000
Over $200,000: nothing. Zip. Have a nice day.
Let's connect the dots. The group most likely to want out of New Jersey is people earning over $100,000. The group that just got its Stay NJ benefit trimmed or eliminated? People earning over $100,000. You can't make this stuff up. Well, you can, but Trenton saves you the trouble.
Where Is Everybody Going?
According to Census data, people leaving New Jersey most often land in Pennsylvania, New York, and Florida. Pennsylvania gets the folks who want more house, lower taxes, and the ability to visit the grandkids without booking a flight. Florida gets the retirees who've decided they'd rather deal with hurricanes than the Division of Taxation. And the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Texas keep picking up people looking for a fresh start, a lower cost of living, and a property tax bill that doesn't read like a car payment.
Not every exit is a tidy retirement with a going-away cake, though. Sometimes the push out the door is a house you inherited and can't afford to keep, a divorce that means selling the family home, a mortgage that's fallen behind, a rental property that's become a second full-time job, or a parent who needs to downsize. If that's you, there are faster ways out than a traditional listing.
So, Which Half Are You?
If you're in the half that's staying, God bless. Someone has to keep the bagel shops in business. And hey, WalletHub says New Jersey is one of the least stressed states in America. Sure it is.
But if you're in the other half, and you've been running the numbers at the kitchen table every November when the tax bill shows up, the first step isn't picking a state. It's knowing exactly what your home is worth today and how much you'll walk away with. That's the number that decides whether you're buying a condo in Sarasota or a farmhouse in Lancaster County.
Ready to find out what your home is worth? Start here.
Sources: Monmouth University Poll (Feb.–Mar. 2024) via NJBIA; The Sun Newspapers (Aug. 2026); United Van Lines 2025 National Movers Study; USAFacts / U.S. Census Bureau; Sunlight Policy NJ via New Jersey 101.5; NJ.com and New Jersey 101.5 reporting on the FY2027 budget and Stay NJ changes.
